On Thursday night, journalist Erick Weber attended a special reception and screening of Marvel’s Black Panther. There, Marvel Studios President Kevin Feige answered questions about the future of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Weber pointed out three noteworthy answers from the event: Guardians 3 is on hold, the aquatic hero Namor could one day join the MCU, and, most importantly, the Avengers 4 trailer will be released sometime in 2018.
That means we’ll almost definitely get the first Avengers 4 trailer within the next few months. (It’s highly doubtful that Marvel would release it between Christmas and New Year’s.)
So when’s the likeliest date that the trailer might actually be released? Just for you, we’ve crunched the numbers.
Avengers: Infinity War got its first official trailer on Wednesday, November 29, 2017. That was 149 days before the film’s release. Also, consider that the original release date was a week later on May 4, so let’s call that 156 days.
Ant-Man and the Wasp got its first trailer on Tuesday, January 30, 2018 — that’s 157 days before its July 6, 2018 release.
But we should also compare this to the timeframe for Captain Marvel: The trailer was released on Tuesday, September 18, 2018 or exactly 171 days before the film’s release on March 8, 2019.
This represents just a small sampling of the most recent Marvel movies, but the average of these three is about 161 days. Most Marvel films get their trailers in a similar timeframe. The data also implies that the trailer is likely to drop in the middle of the week on either a Tuesday or a Wednesday. And don’t forget that Marvel Studios tends to release these trailers on Good Morning America early in the morning.
Avengers 4 is scheduled for release on May 3, 2019, and 161 days before that is Friday, November 23, 2018. That just so happens to be Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. That seems way too convenient to be some kind of coincidence.
Ultimately, if we had to guess, we’d assume that the Avengers 4 trailer — and title most likely — might be released on Good Morning America on Thanksgiving week or even on Thanksgiving Day.
Avengers 4 is scheduled for release on May 3, 2019.