All Men Must Die isn’t just a catchy tagline on Game of Thrones posters — in Westeros, it’s a universal truth. Ever since the story’s supposed protagonist Ned Stark lost his head in the first season’s shocking penultimate episode, Thrones fans have had to accept that they’re watching a narrative where no one is safe.
It doesn’t matter how much screen time they get or whether they’re on the posters. A lead is just as likely to get stabbed or lose a head as a random extra. And as the seventh and penultimate season approaches, the stakes are higher than ever. The trailer alone promises more war than ever before as Cersei and Daenerys face off for the Iron Throne, and Jon Snow fights to keep the North — and all this is happening without any book to guide us.
Who is most likely to die? For some insight, we’re trusting in the hive mind and looking at the results of a January survey of 10,000 Facebook users by Sports Betting Experts. The website also provided its own odds on the death pool. We’ve got the characters most likely to die below, listed in order of the percentage of the vote they got.
9. Brienne of Tarth
Brienne’s death would be a blow, but it wouldn’t be unexpected. Like Davos, she’s almost too noble for this brutal world. She shows loyalty and integrity even when it gives her no advantage, and in the Season 7 trailer she seems to be aligned with Jon and Sansa, for now. If things go badly for the North, Brienne would absolutely die defending the Starks. She won 4.46 percent of the vote and her odds are +7500, which means 75 to 1.
8. Sansa Stark
Sansa would be a shocking main character death. She’s progressed from a spoiled and passive girl to a formidable political strategist. But that could also be her downfall, as she seems too drawn to the Machiavellian side of politics. If she keeps trusting Petyr Baelish and turns on Jon, that could be her downfall. She won 5.37 percent of the vote and her odds are +5000.
7. Jaime Lannister
Like Sansa, Jamie Lannister would be a shocking main character death, but it would also be appropriate. He’s had his most dynamic redemption arc in Seasons 2 and 3, and saved Tyrion’s life in Season 4. Now that Cersei is queen, he’s twiddling his thumbs unhappily. He can’t leave her side, but he also can’t condone her actions. It would be better for a legendary warrior to die than to become passive. He won 5.23 percent of Sports Betting Experts’s poll, with odds at +550.
6. Gregor Clegane
Gregor Clegane, aka the Mountain, is technically already dead. After Oberyn’s sword poisoned him in Season 4, Qyburn resurrected him as “Ser Robert Strong,” Cersei’s undead guard dog. He can surely still die again, zombie-style, however — and what better way for him to die than by his brother’s hand? Game of Thrones fans have long theorized that the Mountain and the Hound will face off in a battle to the death. Season 7 could be the one to do him in. He won 6.25 percent of the vote, with odds at +1250.
5. Yara Greyjoy
Yara Greyjoy is attempting to lead her people, but she must contend with her crazy uncle, Euron. Although the Season 7 trailer shows her kissing Ellaria Sand, it could be a kiss of death. She won 6.37 percent of the vote and her odds are +1100.
4. Jorah Mormont
Jorah Mormont is suffering from Greyscale, a deadly disease with no known cure that turns you into a rock zombie. At the end of Season 6, Daenerys commanded him to find the cure, but that’s easier said than done. The Season 7 trailer features a quick glimpse of his arm, and it looks like the Greyscale has spread. His survival would be surprising. He won 7.11 percent of the vote and his odds are +650.
3. Davos Seaworth
After Ned Stark’s death, Davos has been the most honorable man in Westeros. He befriended a child with facial scarring and is now a father figure to Jon Snow. He’s so decent, it’s frankly shocking he’s still alive. Sports Betting Experts gave him +1050 odds, and he won 7.23 percent of the vote.
Melisandre has progressed from a creepy and manipulative priestess into a sad, lost woman. She manipulated Stannis into killing his brother and his daughter, but she truly believed he was the prince that was promised. She lost her faith when Stannis proved her wrong, but she regained it after resurrecting Jon Snow. Unfortunately, when Jon found out about Shireen’s death in Season 6, he kicked her out of his entourage. The Season 7 trailer looks like she’ll return to Dragonstone, where Stannis used to live and Daenerys will be in Season 7. Perhaps death by dragonfire is in order. She won 8.08 percent of the poll, with odds of +850.
1. Theon Greyjoy
Theon Greyjoy has had a rough time, as he’s gone from being a privileged dick to a lost-boy torture victim. In helping save Sansa from Ramsay, he’s mostly atoned for his past sins — and everyone knows that a good redemption narrative ends in death. In the Season 7 trailer, he’s shown in a fiery ship battle. That could very well be his end. He won the Sports Betting Experts crowdsourced poll with 14.22 percent of the vote and odds of +2500.
Think it could be someone else? Here’s a chart of all the characters in the survey:
Game of Thrones Season 7 premieres July 16 on HBO.