Mandalorian Season 3 theory: Din Djarin is the Jar Jar of the sequels
What happened to Mandalore before The Force Awakens?
The planet Mandalore is cursed. Or is it? If we all stop thinking about Baby Yoda for one second, the biggest, most important plot development in The Mandalorian Season 3 could be Din Djarin potentially accepting his claim to the throne of Mandalore. After defeating Moff Gideon in combat for the Darksaber, Bo-Katan could encourage Mando to become the ruler of the Mandalorian people for a while.
The prospect of King Mando certainly opens Season 3 up to all kinds of cool possibilities. And it's not beyond the realm of possibility that a well-intentioned mistake could see Din become an unlikely Jar Jar Binks figure, unwittingly setting the stage for the First Order's rise to power just as the poor Gungan accidentally allowed Palpatine to wrench control from the Senate in the prequels.
Here's how King Mando in Mandalorian Season 3 could explain Snoke and the eventual rise of Kylo Ren. Wild speculation ahead.
The political landscape is shifting — Although space politics isn't central to The Mandalorian, the general state of unrest in the "Outer Rim" is hinted at by New Republic X-wing cops twice in Season 2. Cara Dune's reaffiliation with the New Republic and Boba Fett's horror at the return of the Empire all suggests the transition from total Imperial Rule to a "peaceful" Republic has been rocky as hell. So, how does Mandalore fit into all that?
As far as we can tell, the Empire completely ravaged Mandalore early in Palpatine's reign, which seems to account for the fracturing of the Mandalorian society in the post-Return of the Jedi era we see in The Mandalorian. That said, Mandalorian culture was pretty fractured before that — you've got at least two civil wars, one in Jango Fett's time, and the other one, which we saw throughout The Clone Wars. But, as Bo-Katan said in season 2, "we're stronger together."
Uniting Mandalore — If King Mando takes the throne, he could be the rallying point everybody needs to come together. Because he's kind of a reformed orthodox Mandalorian, he has ties to both the "zealots" from the Children of the Watch and more mainstream Mandalorians like Bo-Katan. He also has good relations with outcast quasi-Mandalorians like Boba Fett, who maybe isn't a true Mandalorian, but had a dad who used to be one.
If King Mando happens, and the planet Mandalorian is united, the next question is simple: What is Mando's policy toward the New Republic?
King Mando could accidentally help create the First Order — In The Clone Wars, Obi-Wan Kenobi went to Mandalore because it was an Outer Rim planet that had declared itself neutral in the conflict between the Republic and the Separatists. Back then, the Old Republic needed the strength of Mandalore to help rallying more independent systems to fight against Dooku, the Techno Union Army, and the Trade Federation.
Thanks to internal politics — partially Bo-Katan's fault, though you can mostly blame Darth Maul — Mandalore never really got it together to formally help the Republic. In the end, Bo-Katan's forces did team-up with the Republic, but we all know how that turned out.
Order 66 certainly wasn't the fault of the idealists within the Old Republic, but in The Mandalorian, you can tell that Bo-Katan doesn't love thinking about the good old days of the Clone Army. Her stance is likely reflective of most Mandalorians: All these star wars are somebody else's fault, not theirs. Mando was orphaned because of the Clone Wars, and it feels unlikely he'd sympathize with the Republic — New or Old — just because droids from the Separatist Army killed his parents. This means it feels really unlikely that Mando would push a newly unified Mandalore to become a part of the New Republic.
As The Mandalorian has demonstrated, the New Republic is strongest in the "core" worlds and has a harder time keeping order on the Outer Rim. Even Greef Karga notes the Empire couldn't really keep the Outer Rim in-line, meaning there's little evidence the New Republic can, either.
Nevarro joining (or not joining) the New Republic doesn't feel like a big deal either way. But Mandalore continuing to be independent at this point in Star Wars history is a bigger problem. The First Order was able to rise to power mostly because the New Republic was unable to keep tabs on what exactly was going on outside of their power base. In other words, in The Force Awakens, we get the sense that the Republic has been kind of consolidated to some Core Worlds, and that's kind of it. If a powerful and legendary planet like Mandalore — even ruling from a new world — had decided the help the Republic out, then maybe the First Order could have been stopped before they got out of control. Basically, through some seemingly well-meaning act of political neutrality, Mando could be like Jar Jar Binks accidentally causing Palpatine's rise to power in Attack of the Clones. Remember when Mayfeld suggested Mando was a Gungan?
This isn't to say the rise of the First Order is Mando's fault. We don't actually know what decisions he'll make. But, based on what we know of the Way, and of Din Djarin's predilections, Mandalore joining the New Republic does not seem like a safe bet. We know about a Corellian like Han Solo would say about the betting odds, but we're talking about Mando here.
The Mandalorian Season 3 is expected sometime in 2022.