There’s a lot of leaks and speculation out there when it comes to the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate roster, but the one rumor that’s almost guaranteed to be true is that we’ll get at least one new Pokémon from the 7th-generation games Pokémon Sun and Moon. The only real question is who, and according to one of the top Smash Bros. Ultimate leakers around, even that’s not up for debate.

It’s Incineroar, at least according to trusted tipster and fighting game tipster Vergeben.

Vergeben has proven to be a mostly reliable source of information when it comes to Smash Bros. Ultimate leaks. They accurately predicted new roster additions like Ridley, Simon Belmont, and Isabelle. Their track record might not be perfect, but when Vergeben speaks, people listen.

pokemon gen 7 Incineroar
Incineroar

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate: Vergeben doubles down on the Incineroar rumors

Earlier this week the anonymous Smash Bros. Ultimate leaker did just that, chiming in on a GameFAQs forum post titled, “Are Incineroar’s chances overestimated?” According to Vergeben, who’s previously reported on the likelihood that we’ll see Incineroar (the final evolution of Gen 7 starter Litten) in the new game, there’s no reason to doubt this particular leak.

Here’s his response, which, while blunt, definitely doesn’t leave much room for debate:

A wild stupid post appears!

I’m sorry to come right out and tell you that believing it is not Incineroar means you are in denial, but this community lives for living in denial.

Like we said, pretty definitive. But wait, how do we know there’s going to be a Gen 7 Pokémon in Smash Bros. Ultimate at all? Well, it all comes down to the fighting game’s history.

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate: The case for a new Pokémon

For the past few generations of Smash, every new entry has introduced a Pokémon from the latest game in the series. For Smash Bros. Wii U that meant the addition of Greninja from the Gen 6 games. And before that, Smash Bros. Brawl added Lucario from Gen 5.

Go back any further and the pattern starts to fall apart (back then, Nintendo’s focus was more on getting the original Pokémon superstars like Pikachu and Charizard into the game), but moving forward the pattern seems pretty clear. Each new Smash game means the addition of a new Pokémon from the latest generation. In this case, that means Gen 7.

So there you have it. Incineroar will be in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, at least according to Vergeben. And if history is any guide, then that’s nearly as good as official confirmation from Nintendo. Sorry Decidueye fans, the leaker has spoken.

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate launches December 7 for Nintendo Switch