If you’re placing any Golden Globes bets, then maybe you might want to consider what the latest A.I. predictions are saying. In both Golden Globes Best Picture categories — comedy and drama — Unanimous A.I. and applied their unique systems to forecast possible winners. And it looks like this year, you can place a lot of faith in a certain sea monster cleaning up. The Shape of Water is looking good in the categories of Best Actress, but also Best Picture, too.
On Friday, in order to forecast possible outcomes in a variety of categories at the Golden Globes, Unanimous A.I. used what’s known as “swarm intelligence.” This means 50 people worked together as a hive mind to make picks across selected sections of the upcoming awards program.
As will be evident in the following animations, each participant controlled a small golden magnet and used it to drag the puck toward the film they thought was the most likely outcome. As the users saw the puck move toward a particular outcome, it triggers a psychological response. They readjust their decision-making, building toward a consensus. Here’s Unanimous A.I. founder Louis Rosenberg explaining this concept in greater depth during a recent TEDx Talk.
So what does this mean for The Shape of Water and the Golden Globes? In the Best Actress in a Drama category, the swarm predicted Sally Hawkins will take home the award, though not with particularly high confidence. However, when the swarm had The Shape of Water as a choice in two different scenarios for Best Picture, it won both.
In the first scenario, participants only had the options of The Shape of Water and Dunkirk.
Between these two choices, the swarm overwhelming choose Shape of Water, with a confidence brain power score of 73. And, when the swarm was given the option to choosing between more than just two of the nominees in the drama category for Best Picture, it still choose Shape of Water.
This time, with all the other nominees as a possibility, the swarm still believes Shape of Water will win. This is relevant because it demonstrates that outside of a binary system, the swarm still predicting the same film as it did within a binary system.
So, does that mean Shape of Water will certainly win the Golden Globe for best picture? Not necessarily, but swarm A.I. does have a good track record as an ancillary indicator of possible outcomes, particularly with sports. As a previous Inverse article explains, the sports side of things, the swarm went a perfect 7-0 in its most recommended picks for an English Premier League slate earlier this season.
Despite the good news for The Shape of Water in the Best Motion Picture- Drama category, its director, Guillermo Del Toro, is not expected to win. At least not according to the swarm.
When given the choice between Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk and Guillermo del Toro, the swarm choose Nolan. Though it should be noted, the swarm didn’t do that with, particularly high confidence. What this means, is that as far as the A.I. is concerned, Nolan is the favorite, but only by a small margin.
Which means, you shouldn’t be surprised if The Shape of Water sweeps multiple categories tomorrow night, proving once and for all, that the best subject matter for a serious movie should always be a sea monster.
The Golden Globes airs on Sunday, January 7, at 8pm eastern time on NBC.