By 2032, Asia will be leading the world’s economies, while the U.S., Europe, and Russia are all expected to experience a significant decline. That’s according to a new report from London’s Centre for Economics and Business Research, which predicts that the U.S. will be usurped by China for the top economic spot in a little more than a decade.
“China overtakes the U.S.A. to become the world’s largest dollar economy in 2030,” a statement on the report reads. “Because the impact of President Trump on trade has been less severe than expected, the USA will retain its global crown a year longer than we anticipated in the last report.”
Apparently, the effect of Donald Trump’s presidency had analysts more concerned last year than in 2017, as the report chalks up the U.S.’s longer run at number one to a “failure of Donald Trump to follow through on much of his protectionist agenda.”
Other interesting shifts in global standing, according to the report, are:
- India replaces the UK and France as the fifth largest economy in 2018.
- Russia will drop from 11th place in 2017 to 17th in 2032; a result of weak oil prices.
- In 2028, Brazil will become the sixth largest economy.
- By 2032, three of the four largest economies will all be Asian — China, India, and Japan — while Korea and Indonesia will have entered the top 10.
The report also notes that technology, rather than globalization, will be the driving force behind economic growth moving into the future. It asserts that the digital revolution will continue to propel economies, placing “a premium on creativity,” that will encourage workers to migrate accordingly.
Countries will have to evolve, the report says. “To avoid major loss of jobs or growth in inequality, institutions will need to be flexible,” it says. “This means reforming welfare, tax, education and labour markets in many countries.”
The report, which was co-authored by Global Construction Perspectives, observes some interesting forecasts for construction, as well, fueled by massive infrastructure projects. According to Global Construction Perspectives Director Graham Robinson, we’ll be seeing historic levels of construction by 2032.
“The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and the Indian infrastructural project will boost construction’s share of world GDP to 15 percent by 2032, probably the highest share of world GDP construction has seen since the pyramids or Great Wall of China were built.”
The report, called the World Economic League Table, forecasts the future of the world’s economies in 192 countries, taking into account inflation, currency exchange, and the various factors that could contribute to an economy’s growth.