The phrase “valar morghulis” or “all men must die” isn’t just something the Faceless Men say to sound dramatic on Game of Thrones; it’s basically the show’s motto. Each ensuing season ups the death toll and axes more characters than the last — and as the show winds down into its seventh and penultimate season, professional oddsmakers believe Theon Greyjoy is most likely to be the next victim.

Pollster site Sports Betting Experts polled 10,000 fans who ranked the most likely deaths as follows: Theon Greyjoy, Melisandre, Davos Seaworth, and Jorah Mormont.

Theon is an obvious choice to die as a cap on his redemption arc, while Melisandre has death coming because of her role in burning the innocent and adorable Shireen at the stake in Season 5. Davos Seaworth is basically the Ned Stark of the narrative, as he’s too decent for this world and loyal to Jon Snow. It’s a wonder he’s made it this far. As for Jorah Mormont, he’s afflicted with Greyscale, a seemingly incurable and fatal disease — even though Daenerys commanded him to find a cure at the end of Season 6. All in all, these are safe bets.

The poll results for the characters least likely to die were Bran Stark, Daenerys Targaryen, and Jon Snow. As the new Three-eyed Raven, Bran carries too much important plot relevant information. Daenerys is ostensibly too important to the story’s endgame, and it wouldn’t make narrative sense to kill Jon Snow twice. Plus, Kit Harington and Emilia Clarke have both signed contracts for Seasons 7 and 8.

Of course, Season 7 could still pull the rug out from under any of these theories. Game of Thrones Season 7 premieres on July 16, 2017.

Photos via HBO