Ladbrokes Suspended Its Trump Impeachment Odds


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Update: Ladbrokes has since resumed the Donald Trump Specials, telling Inverse in an email that “they were just suspended as part of routine site maintenance.” A representative from the company reassured us that, “Rest assured we will be continuing to take bets on Trump impeachment and many other markets for quite some time - it would be bad business for us to shut up shop.”

As of the morning of March 31, it appeared that British betting firm Ladbrokes had suspended its popular “Donald Trump Specials” betting page. It was the section of the site that had previously housed the betting odds that President Donald Trump would either be impeached or resign sometime before the end of his first term.

For unclear reasons, the “Donald Trump Specials” bets had been listed as “suspended,” and the “American” page was only home to a number of (very preliminary) bets about the 2020 election, including odds for potential nominees in each party.

Prior to the suspension of the “Specials,” Trump’s odds of getting the boot had crested 56 percent, or 4/5, in the wake of his myriad scandals like the investigation into possible connections between his campaign and Russia.

After the removal of the bets, Inverse reached out to Ladbrokes to inquire about why they’ve disappeared from the site.

Ladbrokes’s terms of service offer this disclaimer:

“Any bet accepted, in error, for an event that has already taken place, or where betting has been suspended, will be void, win or lose.”

The odds make for some entertaining speculation about the future of the Trump presidency. But those high numbers can easily be misleading, and it’s important to remember that betting odds don’t always mirror reality. And, unfortunately for those who’d like to hedge on those odds coming through, reality presents a much smaller chance of impeachment actually coming to pass.

Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes, told Inverse earlier this month, “I personally think it’s very optimistic of people to bet that he’ll be replaced within four years. There’s a 2 or 3 percent chance of it happening.”

Time will tell if those figures stay the same.

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