We Predicted the 2019 Oscar Winners Using Real Statistics

Don't go with your gut, go with the cold, hard numbers

The 2019 Oscars are right around the corner, and to help you predict the victors (and to win your Oscar party betting pool), we’ve put together our picks for the most statistically probable future Academy Award winners. These are the Vegas Odds, baby!

To arrive at our choices, we scoured the internet for the best probability and betting resources we could find (like oddschecker.com and oddsshark.com), and added in a touch of input from academy-interested media outlets (like Variety and Rotten Tomatoes).

A real quick lesson on how odds work: the first number is how many dollars you will win if you bet the second number. E.G. if the odds are 1/2, you will only win one dollar more for every two you put down, but that’s because it’s a safe bet. If the odds are 2/1, you will win 2 dollars for every one you put down. It’s slightly more risky bet, but there’s also more reward.

We left our own biases out of the equation, and let the chips fall where they may. Without further ado, here are Inverse’s Vegas Odds Oscar Winners 2019. For more information on our picks, check out the video up top.

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, ‘Green Book’. 1/14

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: ‘Vice’. 1/10

Best Costume Design: Ruth E. Carter, ‘Black Panther’. 2/1

Best Documentary Feature: ‘Free Solo’. 4/5

Best Sound Editing: ‘A Quiet Place’. 3/1

Best Sound Mixing: ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’. 4/5

Best Production Design: Hannah Beachler, ‘Black Panther’. 5/2

Best Foreign Language: ‘Roma’. 1/10

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, ‘If Beale Street Could Talk’. 2/5

Best Animated Short Film: ‘Bao’. 1/4

Best Animated Feature: ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse’. 1/10

Best Visual Effects: SPLIT. ‘Avengers: Infinity War’. 1/3 and ‘First Man’. 15/4

Best Film Editing: ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’. 7/2

Best Documentary Short: ‘Black Sheep’. 6/4

Best Live Action Short: SPLIT. ‘Detainment’. 74/17 and ‘Marguerite’, 39/40

Best Adapted Screenplay: ‘BlacKkKlansman’. 2/5

Best Original Screenplay: ‘The Favourite’. 4/7

Best Cinematography: ‘Alfonso Cuaron, ‘Roma’. 1/14

Best Original Score: Nicholas Britell, ‘If Beale Street Could Talk’. 4/2

Best Original Song: Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper, ‘Shallow’. 20/1

Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, ‘Roma’. 31/10

Best Leading Actor: Rami Malek, ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’. 31/10

Best Leading Actress: Glenn Close, ‘The Wife’. 31/10

Best Picture: ‘Roma’. 4/7

And that’s it, fam! Follow our stats (or don’t), but don’t blame us if you pick with your heart instead of the numbers and lose everything.

The Oscars air Sunday, Feb 24 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

Media via Pixabay, pixabay